Hurricane season could be impactful, with forecast for Bermuda High steering west – Artemis.bm
The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2 are forecasting that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season could be among the most active ever, while they also warn of a strong Bermuda High that could set in and steer storms further west towards the United States and Caribbean.
In their forecast, the two companies are calling for the 2024 hurricane season to likely be one of the most active on record.
They forecast 24 named tropical storms will form in the Atlantic basin, of which 11 are forecast to become hurricanes, with 6 intensifying further to reach major Category 3 hurricane status.
“That is well above the 30-year average tally for both hurricanes and storms, and also markedly above the tally of 20 storms, seven hurricanes and three Cat 3-plus hurricanes in 2023,” the companies explained.
It is the “most aggressive hurricane prediction since outlooks began in 2006,” they said.
“Most of the evidence is lined up to suggest a very active and very impactful hurricane season in 2024,” forecasters at Atmospheric G2 said.
They are also warning of more landfalls during the 2024 hurricane season, due to “a troubling setup for storm movement,” which is especially of note for the insurance, reinsurance, catastrophe bond and insurance-linked securities (ILS) sectors.
The pair predict a “complete flip compared to last season,” with a strong Bermuda High installed.
The Bermuda High is “A semi-permanent, subtropical area of high pressure in the North Atlantic Ocean off the East Coast of North America that migrates east and west with varying central pressure,” according to NOAA’s definition.
The Atmospheric G2 forecasters explain, “A stronger high-pressure system is expected to set up shop near Bermuda and the Azores, which should deflect more storms westward toward the Caribbean and the United States.”
Adding that, “This combination of more storms and this pattern will lead to more storms nearing coastlines.”
They also note that confidence is growing that the Atlantic basin hurricane season could exhaust its allotted number of 21 names again in 2024.
Calling their forecast a “turbocharged outlook” the forecasters note that the two primary reasons for the forecast of a very active hurricane season with elevated landfall risk are the very warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SST(, especially in the Atlantic’s Main Development Region (MDR) where waters are already as warm as it should be in late June or early July, and the fact that El Niño is likely to become La Niña during the hurricane season months.
Including this forecast for a very active season alongside those others we track, keeps our Artemis Average forecast at a level of 23 named storms, 12 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, with a seasonal ACE Index score of 212.
Track the 2024 Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane season on our dedicated page and we’ll update you as new information emerges.
